The September 2024 Job Market: A Tale of Two Trends

By Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter

As another September rolls around, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) once again faces its annual challenge: making sense of the labor market’s predictable yet significant swings. This year, September 2024’s data has brought some intriguing insights into the complex world of seasonal adjustments.

The September Phenomenon

Historically, September has been a month of job losses in the private sector. Since 2000, with the exception of the pandemic year of 2020, September has consistently seen a decline in unadjusted private sector employment. The average loss has been around 432,000 jobs (or 405,000 if we include 2020). This pattern is largely due to:

• Students ending summer jobs
• Seasonal positions concluding
• Teachers moving from private to public payrolls as the school year begins

The Magic of Seasonal Adjustments

To account for these expected fluctuations, the BLS applies seasonal adjustments. These adjustments aim to smooth out predictable changes, allowing for a clearer view of underlying employment trends. Since 1948, September adjustments have typically added about 191,000 jobs to the private sector…